Flames vs Ducks – NHL Playoffs Round 2 Free Pick

Calgary Flames LogoThe Calgary Flames have shocked the world this year.  They were expected to be the bottom feeders of the Western Conference, but the addition of Johnny Gaudreau, the emergence of Jiri Hudler, the stellar goaltending of Hiller and Ramo, and the awesome play of several defenseman has turned this Flames team into a contender.  There are now 8 teams left in the NHL playoffs and the Flames are one of them.

They play the Ducks in the first round after Anaheim swept the Winnipeg Jets in a strange fashion where they really weren’t in control of many of the games.  In fact they set a record for leading for the fewest amount of minutes in a 4-0 series sweep in NHL history.  That’s just how the Ducks have found success all season.  Even though they finished tied for the most points in the Western Conference, the Anaheim Ducks only had a goal differential of +10 through the season.  That was good for worst of all 16 teams in the NHL playoffs and even worse than the +15 that the LA Kings had finishing 9th in the West.  I think that goal differential shows two things about the Ducks.  They know how to win close games and they aren’t as good as their point total indicates.

The Flames on the other hand were a +25 in goal differential this season.  That tells me they deserved the 97 points they finished with and that they didn’t get lucky winning a lot of tight games that could have gone either way.

Enough set up, let’s look at the odds for the series winner from Bet365.com:

  • Calgary Flames 2.90
  • Anaheim Ducks 1.43

Those odds indicate that the Ducks have about a 68% chance to win this series, while the Flames are being given just a 32% shot at advancing.

My Pick

If you haven’t noticed yet I actually like the Flames in this series.

I see the Ducks as being overestimated.  Yes, they swept the Jets, but most of those games really could have gone either way.  The same can be said for a lot of their wins during the season, which is why they only ended with a +10 goal differential.  It does bode well for the Ducks that Corey Perry had 7 points in the first round sweep and is really playing on top of his game.  The Ducks offense does not seem like it will be the issue with Getzlaf, Kesler, Silfverberg and Vatanen all playing very well.

That said, the Ducks gave up 226 goals in the season, which was 10 more than the Flames, who only gave up 216.

I don’t see scoring goals being an issue for the Flames in this series.  I also give the edge to Hiller in goal over Frederik Andersen of the Ducks.

At these odds I think the Flames are a great bet to upset the Ducks and advance to the Conference Finals.  Something that will make Calgary go absolutely crazy.

Play: Flames to win series 2.90 @ Bet365.com

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